Living in Florida or the south, many of us are familiar with the typical summer routine of showers in the afternoons in between a scatter of hurricanes and tropical storms. But what factors contribute to a stronger or weaker hurricane and hurricane season?
Most of us know that the biggest factor is how warm the oceanic waters are. But did you know that the warmth of the waters preceding hurricane season can actually be a huge predictor as to how the season will pan out? The warmer the water from the January to May, the more likely there is to be a more active season. This is why many experts had already predicted a stronger hurricane season this year before hurricanes were even on the radar for most people. With warmer waters come reduced trade winds and upper level westerly winds. Reduced trade winds mean less cooler waters can travel to the warmer waters to mellow out the temperatures. This means the waters will stay warmer than usual.
El Nino and La Nina are also important factors. Even though these water phenomenon occur in the Pacific they actually affect the activity of the Atlantic waters since these two oceans are connected. This year, there is a prediction that La Nina will be normal to high causing Atlantic water activity to be normal to increased. We will go more in dept into El Nino and La Nina in our next blog.
While the weather is likely to be more mild in June, our family at AJS would like to help your family prepare for this year's entire hurricane season. Stay tuned for tips, advice, as well as hurricane news and science as our next set of blogs will be dedicated to these topics. For now, we hope everyone is staying home and staying safe!